another cycling forum

  => Freewheeling => Topic started by: sam on April 10, 2009

Title: why rent when you can be pwned
Post by: sam on April 10, 2009
(https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/pics/mewed.jpg)

Unlike the Continent, especially France with her liberte egalite fraternite, the memory of the feudal system simply never washed away. People are sickeningly desperate to have property, to get on the completely mythical 'property ladder', not because of the advantages it might bring but because it means they won't be seen as serfs. (https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?s=&showtopic=108976&view=findpost&p=1760465)

(https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/pics/STC.jpg)

The basic market conditions are still all wrong for recovery. For starters, cheapness shouldn't be measured relative to peak prices, but relative to historical trend prices. And, on that basis, UK house prices are still totally out of whack. (https://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/stay-away-from-property-it-has-much-further-to-fall-14709.aspx)

(https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/pics/redhouse.jpg)
Doom and gloom? (https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/index.php?topic=36418.0)
Title: recovereh
Post by: sam on July 18, 2009
From VacantPossession (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=120238&st=0&p=2018475&#entry2018475) over at the House Price Crash forum, responding to what passes for news (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8157072.stm) at the BBC:

As usual, all these reports are entirely confused as to what they mean by "upturn" in the market. Do they mean that houses are more affordable and accessible? No they do not. There is always a half hearted mention of "freeing" up borrowing - but this is not so houses become more available, and cheaper. This freeing up is of course meant to be a signal that the recovery, as always, implies property can resume its previous habit of inflating beyond affordability, so that those already stupid enough to have bought at a ridiculous price, can be comforted that they made the right decision after all.

In no other area of commerce is a "recovering" market solely gauged upon price. A healthy market is one where there is plentiful supply and plentiful demand, but where there is sufficient competition and affordability to keep a cap on spiralling prices. A good market for any commodity is one where there is sustained activity and both buyer and seller are content.

But housing somehow changes the fundamental rules as far as the media are concerned. It gets so tiresome and tedious that what the BBC and nearly every other news organisation means by recovery, is in fact anything BUT recovery. What it means is that they think we can continue regarding property as a speculative vehicle again.
Title: The Phil & Kirsty Show
Post by: sam on August 13, 2009
(https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/pics/withnail.jpg)

As Marwood says of dealer Danny in Withnail and I..."Will we never be free?" (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?s=&showtopic=121937&view=findpost&p=2075031)

HPC won a place in my heart back in 2004/5/6 for being a sanctuary from the house price inflation madness all around. Like anywhere else, you have to filter the crap out (including generous helpings of misogyny (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjxY9rZwNGU&)), and you shouldn't expect a balanced debate - the clue is in the name - but it's been a reliable source of mirth, a decent clipping service if a bit heavy on the Daily Mail, and merciless at examining the flaws in the gems we get from mainstream media.
Title: the glooming
Post by: sam on September 14, 2009
House prices will not return to the peak reached in autumn 2007 for at least another five years, according to Ernst & Young’s Item Club. The influential group’s gloomy forecast contradicts the increasingly optimistic outlook of the Government and some commentators that the British economy has begun a sustained recovery. (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article6833095.ece)

^ Scroll up 2 posts.

See also Patrick Collinson (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2009/sep/14/mortgage-rates-affordability-house-prices), usually a voice of sanity.
Title: not waving but drowning
Post by: sam on October 05, 2009
(https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/pics/missingtheboat.jpg)
Ad which appeared in my local rag this weekend

(https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/pics/missingtheboat2.jpg)
First time buyers pleased that they didn't miss the boat
Title: affordability check
Post by: sam on October 07, 2009
It doesn't get much blunter: (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=127168&view=findpost&p=2181559)

People are stupid. That is obvious. The question for those waiting in the wings for a sensible time to enter the market is this, should I buy now? If we take 'people are stupid' as a given, it is reasonable to assume that they will continue buying houses for as long as they can 'afford' the monthly payments. And by 'afford' I don't mean afford in the way that you or I might mean afford, I mean 'afford' in the way all the stupid people think. They will think they can afford a house if they can afford the monthly payment next month. That's it. That is their affordability check. And at the moment, with IRs as low as they are, they can *just* about 'afford' it. So they are buying.

What the more thoughtful people should do is wait for higher interest rates. It is only at the point when the stupid can't afford to pay the next months repayment on their new purchase that they will stop buying and prices will resume their decline to their natural level.

So don't buy yet.


(https://www.notanothercyclingforum.net/acf/pics/dumb.jpg)
Title: be of good cheer
Post by: sam on January 05, 2010
As the UK sinks finally beneath an ocean of debt, a sodden copy of the Daily Telegraph will float to the surface, and the front page headline will read 'House Prices up again'. (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=133797&view=findpost&p=2324489)